In Serie A, at the top, things are clear. Few things can happen. A basic question is: will Napoli miss out of the European Cups? Inter have already won the title and Bologna has a very good chance of reaching the Champions League. It’s not a miracle. It’s the Motta effect – a young, ambitious and inspired coach. A sort of Xabi Alonso at Leverkusen. A new wave of exceptional coaches is coming to Europe and Motta is at the forefront. Not long from now he will be in charge of a very big team and will win national and continental trophies. Here’s a bet I’m taking without hesitation.
In Serie A, however, things are a lot murkier at the bottom of the table. At relegation, only Salernitana seems to have already packed their bags for Serie B. By contrast, from 13th to 19th place in just five points a whole host of teams are squeezed in: Cagliari, Lecce, Udinese, Empoli, Verona, Frosinone and Sassuolo.
The ones most likely to be relegated are Frosinone and Sassuolo themselves. That doesn’t mean – not by a long shot – that they will sell their skins cheaply. Frosinone blocked Bologna in the last round, which isn’t easy.
What would a focused and wise punter do?
In this chasm between the top and bottom of the standings I come up with the theory that there is a very small group, an island, a strip of the standings of carefree teams. Away from Europe and with no worries of relegating to Serie B. And the results of these teams will ultimately be what gives us the final shape of the standings. On this short list are Torino, Genoa, Monza.
In the last round, Torino lost at Empoli and the Tuscan side gained a breathing space that could prove decisive down there in the depths of the standings. And Genoa – well, Genoa won away at Verona, deepening the fears of those in the Veneto region that they’ll be seeing Serie B matches next year. Would you have bet on that? Artificial intelligence thinks faster and better: it gave the winning answer. In this match you should have bet on Verona scoring at least once. That’s it. And Verona did indeed score, though in the end it lost. Sometimes to beat the bookie you need the clear, crisp, precisely surgical thinking of a computer.
The battle in Serie A remains exciting, precisely because every week the small teams revolt and try to knock off the big teams. Sometimes they succeed. But a focused punter doesn’t even look at this tussle, but at the unsuspected windows of opportunity that each match opens. A focused/concentrated and wise bettor will see what no artificial intelligence system (which relies solely on past data) will, which is that teams that no longer have a stake in this championship finale could lose focus and ambition, and thus games.
