A team that will neither be relegated nor qualify for the European cups is the star of the Ligue 1’s season finale: Montpellier.
In France the champion is known – PSG, again. The teams that will join the Parisians in the Champions League are known too: Lens and Marseille. We know who will play in the Europa League: Monaco. We even know who will reach the Conference League: Lyon (Rennes also have a chance, but a slim one).
The formidable Lacazette and Wahi
Three of the four relegated teams (Angers, Troyes, Ajaccio) are known. Basically, the big fight is to evoid the last place that leads to Ligue 2. Nantes, Auxerre, Brest and Strasbourg face off. At the moment, Nantes is has the smallest chances of salvation.
These are the realities of the standings, and we must take them into account when betting. At the same time, although it seems to have little left to offer, this end of season in France offers something fantastic: matches where, beyond the stakes, footballers allow themselves to play football with pleasure.
Such was, for example, last week’s hilarious Lyon-Montpellier game, which ended 5-4, with Lacazette (who scored four goals!) scoring in the 100th minute from the penalty spot. Lovren also scored for Lyon, while for Montpellier it was Wahi four times!
Four goals on repeat
Teams like Montpellier (or its next-door neighbor Toulouse), ten points away from relegation and fifteen from the European Cups, are the most interesting to watch at the end of the season.
When betting on them, consider the disinhibition factor. While others are stressing about relegation, Montpellier is playing purely out of ambition and pure enjoyment of the game. It’s refreshing. So does Toulouse. And, to some extents, so do Clermont and Reims (who until recently had hoped to finish on a European Cup place).
Montpellier will play Lorient this weekend and another shower of goals is expected. Before giving four away goals to Lyon (and still losing!), Montpellier had also given four away goals to Monaco (who had no reply and lost to nil).
So let’s calculate how many goals Lorient will concede. Of course, before any calculation, one must consult the artificial intelligence.
